Stand Up and SALUTE

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 2017!!! 

Best wishes to all the readers out there. Recently had been quite busy and i sincerely hope in 2017, i will have more time to interact with all the readers either in blogspot and facebook. Okay, go straight to the main point.

Salutica Allied Solutions Sdn Bhd aka SALUTE is a Malaysian electronics manufacturing company that was founded in 15 October 1990. SALUTE specialises in consumer and business electronic product development like Bluetooth stereo headsets, smart watches and precision light guides for optical touch screen system. SALUTE is an ODM (Original Design Manufacturer). ODM designs and manufactures a product which is specified and eventually branded by another company for sale. Its clients include major American, European, and Japanese electronics and information technology companies[1].

SALUTE's clients[1]

SALUTE's Research And Development (R&D) Department had successfully launched a series of patent pending produces under its own brand "FOBO", which is "For Our Better wOrld". FOBO products such as the world's first all Bluetooth Smart TPMS (Tire Pressure Monitoring System), FOBO Tire, FOBO Bike etc. FOBO is meant to help enhance mankind's daily living through innovative and smart products. Look at how FOBO Tire works by clicking on the link here. For me, it is useful for every drivers, provided nobody will steal the FOBO accessories. FOBO products are sold in 28 countries across Europe, Americas, Middle East, Asia, Africa and Oceania.

FOBO Products

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The Rise and Return of O&G... NOW?

2 big news from O&G industry in the last month of 2016.

2 gap ups in the Brent Oil chart [1]

Notice that there are two gap ups? I had labelled A and B in the chart above. A happened when OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) agreed to first ever production cut in 8 years[2]. It happened on 30 November 2016. The gap up in B happened immediately after non-OPEC and OPEC producers agree on output cut[3]. 

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YEELEE - Post Q3 2016

YEELEE had been in our radar since 15 August 2016. Since then, the share price had been in sideways, waiting for an outbreak. YEELEE had posted a satisfying Q3 report. In terms of revenue, YEELEE grew 25% yoy, declined 6% qoq; in terms of net profit, YEELEE grew 28% yoy and 8% qoq[1]. As mentioned in my post about YEELEE, the manufacturing division and the trading division are the main contributors. Since the CPO price is hitting new high in 2016 and with the contribution from Red Bull Energy Drink distributorship, YEELEE should be growing and luckily it didnt disappoint us. Let's look straight into the QR.

Snapshot from my previous post[2]

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Catching the Falling Knife Heroes & Zeroes

The month of October had not been too generous for us as investors, even though this is our Budget month. The opening index in October is 1,658.36 and closes at 1672.46, it moves up 0.85%. And in the coming month, November will be a critical month for the US Presidential Election. And for us in Malaysia, will the windows dressing happening again in this year end? 

Catch the falling knife, who will be injured?

In this post, we will talk about a few companies which had posted a not so profitable Quarter Result and the share price dropped immediately in the following day. What happened in the second day (T+2)? But before that, this post is just a case study, this is not a post to urge you to catch the falling knife. Do not be a HERO if you are not well trained or well prepared...

The possible reasons that trigger the investors to panic sell, therefore the share price drop drastically are:
1. Something happened to the Management Team;
2. The Quarterly Result is not as good as expected.

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Summary of August 2016

Our FBMKLCI seems to be ready to have a budget rally. Our PM had invited inputs from the Rakyats for 2017 Budget[1]. As seen in The Edge Financial Daily today,some research houses projected that the Budget 2017 will be like election budget as the next Malaysia General Election is due in 2018. Therefore, the budget will be more people-eccentric, focusing on measures to ease concerns of voters like easing the rising cost of living and raising income level[2]. As of today, there are no specific dates for the Bajet 2017 announcement day.

Below table is the announcement dates for previous for Malaysia Budget. I think our PM will be announcing it on the last Friday of October, which is 28 October. Let's wait for more coverage from the news. Previously i had written a blogpost about the Malaysia Budget 2016 - When is the right time to Ride the Wind, click here.

Announcement Dates for Malaysia Budget [3]

Below table is my Gainvestor Portfolio for August. This statistics does not mean anything, it does not mean any hold/buy/sell decision, it is just to summarize and track the Gainvestor Portfolio.

Summary of Gainvestor Portfolio for August 2016

Ribena and Lucozade

Personally YEELEE is an mid term stock. Recently, YEELEE had just obtained a new distributorship contracts from Suntory Beverage & Food Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. to distribute Ribena and Lucozade for 3 years. YEELEE will reap up around RM200 mil from Red Bull alone. Plus the Ribena (favourite drinks among children) and Lucozade (energy drink), i think this year's revenue and net profit will be higher.

Try to look around, amount of people consuming Ribena in Malaysia... And if you are already a shareholder of YEELEE, what will you feel when people are drinking your company's distributed product =P

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And I will be organising a free Stock Investment Sharing Session in Miri. The details are as per below:

This is my first ever FREE STOCK INVESTMENT SHARING SESSION in Miri, Sarawak. ALL are welcomed, especially new starters or young graduates. Hope those who are in Miri can come to support.

In this sharing session, i am going to share about:
1. Why Should We Start to Invest NOW
2. Introduction to Stock Investment
3. My Simple Techniques in Stock Investment
4. Stocks and Life
5. Targeting 8% to 20% of profit
6. Examples of Gainvestor's Stock Picks

ALL are welcomed to join this sharing session. 
And the best thing is it is FREE. 

Any queries, you can
Contact me at: 016-246 7867 (Whatsapp / Wechat)
Email me at: gainvestor10sai@gmail.com
Add me at Facebook Page: Gainvestor

Below are the links to the event:
1. Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/events/602208303285678/
2. Google Form: https://goo.gl/forms/d53MX3JAT2GxrTxs1

Let's Join Me to Ride the Wind and Gainvest

Gainvestor 10sai

27 September 2016
12.56 am

Info: 

The Gainvestor Sharing Session in Miri dated 1 & 2 October 2016 is CANCELLED due to unforeseen. But instead, i am replacing it with a free stock investment sharing session. For KL session, the session is still available, please click HERE. If there are not enough participants for KL session, i will call it off and wait for better time. 

Sources:

[1]: http://www.bajet.com.my/b40-group-to-be-given-emphasis-in-2017-budget/
[2]: The Edge Financial Daily dated 26 September 2017.
[3]: http://gainvestor10sai.blogspot.my/2015/10/malaysia-budget-2016-when-is-right-time.html

OCNCASH - Post Q2 2016 Result

This post is going be a short update on OCNCASH after it released its Q2 2016 result on 26 August 2016[1].

1. Fundamental Analysis:

OCNCASH Net Profit and Revenue by Quarter

As we can see, this Q2's net profit is the highest since it's listed[2]. The net profit is RM2,659k. The net profit recorded yoy of +9% and qoq of 127%, while for revenue, OCNCASH posted yoy of -4% and qoq of 13%. 

2016 Q2 posted the highest net profit since it was listed in 2004[2]

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Perodua BEZZA vs Proton PERSONA

Posted in my FB page on 18 July. Sorry for the blur

If you did notice my facebook page, i had been stressing out on the emergence of Perodua Bezza in the Automobile Industry. For me Perodua Bezza comes out in the right time, right price, with the right specification. Right time, is because Bezza emerges when the consumer power is recovering. And now is the exact time to boost up the automobile industry. Right price, is because Bezza is priced from RM37k to RM51k, depending on the specifications selected. Right specification, means this first ever Perodua sedan car obtained a 5 stars ASEAN NCAP (New Car Assessment Programme) for safety. With its fuel efficiency of 22.8 km/l, it can be compared to foreign competitor, Mitsubishi Attrage/Mirage[2][3].

Why i am so fond about this car? First is because it is our Malaysia Perodua's first ever EEV (Energy Efficient Vehicles) sedan car. Imagine it is local made and assembled car. Bezza is made with quality, comfort, spaciousness, reliability, affordability and looks in mind as it has one of the biggest boot spaces in the market with 508 litres available in its class. We, as Malaysians should be proud of Perodua's technology.

Posted in my FB page on 28 July.

Perodua targeted to sell 7,600 units of Bezza per month in 2016[4]. In terms of Mathematic, from August to December 2016, they targeted 38,000 units of Bezza to be sold. Even Mr President and CEO, Datuk Dr Aminar Rashid Salleh was expecting Perodua Bezza to be one of the best volume sellers, targeted for replacement car buyers, specifically newly-weds and young families, who need a larger boot space in line with the new stage in their lives. We imagine, Malaysia had a lot of fresh graduates every year. In the first year of working, most of them will require a car. It used to be Myvi which was their favourite cars. But Myvi is a hatchback car. If we can get a sedan car with almost the same price with Myvi, i believe mostly fresh graduates will also opt for a sedan car as it is more spacious.

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YEELEE - Little RED-Riding-BULL 一粒小“红牛”

It had been one year since GST was implemented in Malaysia. The confidence from the consumers had been revived. Most consumers now had get used to the GST. So it's also our time to look at the consumer sector and the consumer counters in our FBMKLCI. Why consumer sectors? Click here to refer to my previous post, Consumer - The Next Jewel Sector to be Aimed. And YEELEE will be my jewel counter of consumer sector for the year 2016. 

YEELEE began its core business as an edible oil repacker in Malaysia in 1968. Since then, it had grown into a fully integrated manufacturer and distributor, venturing into various sectors, such as manufacturing, marketing and distribution of fast moving consumer products, plantation and eco-tourism.

YEELEE basically operates in four segments:[1][2][3]

a) Manufacturing - (Packaging Division: Canpac S/B-100% & South East Asia Paper Products-100% ; Palm Oil Refinery Division: Yee Lee Edible Oils S/B-100% ; Palm Oil Mill Division: Yee Lee Palm Oil Industries S/B-100%) Cooking oils, margarine, corrugated paper cartons, crude palm oil, kernel, general line tin cans;

b) Trading/Marketing - (Yee Lee Trading Co S/B-100%)Edible oils, kernel and other consumer products (Morning Kiss, Spritzer, RedBull)

c) Plantation - (Sementara Plantations S/B-100% & Desa Tea S/B-100%)Oil palm and tea.

d) Hospitality - (Sabah Tea Resort S/B-100%)Tourism in Sabah

*Direct Subsidiary Companies is italized. 

**YEELEE has total of 7 direct subsidiaries and 7 indirect subsidiaries.

What really caught my attention is YEELEE is running a "full-cycle" business model. Full-cycle here means from producing the raw material, processing them into products, packaging the end products and selling them to the consumers. So thats why YEELEE had a plantation sector, manufacturing sector and the trading/marketing sector.

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Gonna Catch'Em All - Pokémon Go Stocks

Pokémon Go frenzy is going crazy in the whole world... but for us, Malaysians, we can only see but we cannot play in Malaysia. But today, 6th of August marks an important day for all the Malaysians, cause Pokémon Go is officially launched in Malaysia!!!

Pokémon Go app by Niantic Inc.

It's tough to choose among these Pokemons... Either Charmander, Squirtle or Bulbasaur

Okay, i had to admit, i am also busy catching Pokémons. Well, it's my dream is to be a Pokémon Master just like Ash Ketchum. Haha, enough already. Pokémon Go was released in US on 6 July 2016[3]. After that, the release had triggered the famous gaming stock in US, which is the Nintendo. Let's look at the chart of Nintendo Co. Ltd. (NTDOY).

Daily Chart of Nintendo in US Market

As we can see from the daily chart, the volume of NTDOY came on 7 July 2016, a day after the release of Pokémon Go app. It had a small gap up, opened at 18.64, closed at 18.81. On the next day, it gapped up again. The biggest volume came on 11 July 20016, with a huge gap up and it went all the way to the highest at 38.25 on 18 July, before encountering a hanging man on 19 July. After that it went down and seems to find a support around 24 to 26.

If the investor invested in Nintendo, within 1 month, he could actually earned around 75%, assumed he bought around USD20 and sold at USD35. Easy and fast money within 2 weeks time. This is the wind rider that we had been talking. He/She rides the wind of Pokémon Go and he gained a handsome profit! CNN reported that Nintendo shares up 120% thanks to Pokémon Go[4]. Nintendo is a shareholder in the game’s developer Niantic Inc. and Pokemon Co., but has an "effective economic stake" of just 13 percent in the app.[5]

Now Pokémon Go was officially released in Malaysia. Let's try to dig out the possible related counters so that all of us can ride the wind of the Pokémon Go!

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Consumer - The Next Jewel Sector to be Aimed

It had been a year after our Malaysia announced the implementation of GST since 1 April 2015. And consumers had started to get used to the GST, or in another word, they had to get used to the GST. When we got used, then slowly the consumer index will be uptrend, challenge previous high, breakout, continue to go uptrend, retraced, and the cycle goes on and on. If we look at our Consumer Index...

Consumer Index Daily Chart

The chart failed to beat the resistance of 610.89. And there is a reversal signal seen there, a hanging man, and the next day, it is a bearish engulfing. The RSI had been overbought after being bullish since May. Now the MACD is having a death cross. From the technical indicators, everything seems bearish. And when it is bearish, then we wait. When we compare the chart with previous few years, actually we can see quite a similar pattern for the Consumer Index. Let's look at the weekly chart. 

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投资的虚构道理

”投资？小小年纪学人家投资什么？你很有钱么，学人家投资？”，有没有觉得这些词语很熟悉。应该大家也听的不少了，不管是来自家人，亲戚或者朋友。但是，听了这番话后，我们就因此放弃吗？我们就乖乖的听了他们的劝告，就不去触碰投资或者股票了吗？

投资的道理与事实

其实我们也不能够怪他们，因为他们的话都是为我们好，也不一定是全部错的，只是看我们怎么样处理而已。首先，我们需要处理的东西是我们所能承当的风险程度，或者我喜欢称为“自己那关”，英文是comfort level。千万要记得，自己负责自己的决定，自己的决定自己负责！

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GAINVESTOR "Ride The Wind" Investment Sharing Session

P/S: I have updated my poster and also rectified my email address. Sorry for supplying the wrong email address last time. 

After a few days of designing the Gainvestor logo, seeking advices and comments from my girlfriend and my friends, with the assistance from my friend to further enhance the logo in the photoshop. (My friend, Mr SmokerBamboo is a talented photoshop editor, feel free to visit his blog page

http://smokerbambooshobby.blogspot.my/ You will be amazed by his editing skills and creativity.) And ta daaaaa... Finally it's done. 

This is my 51th post. And this 51th post marks the birth of my logo, hope we can learn more, invest together and gain more~

Gainvestor Logo & Slogan: Learn Invest Gain

The logo is actually a yacht, it travels across the ocean by riding on the wind. (It might be hard for you to notice, but if you notice the yacht, thank you^^ haha) And it fits my theme of Wind Rider- Gainvestor. And the yacht is actually made of 4 letters, which is G, A, I and the N is the base of the yacht. For me, the most important is we should LEARN, INVEST and GAIN.

Investing is not always about winning money

Investing is not necessary always a win-win game. There are times we will face losses. There was a saying, 80% of the people is losing in the market while the remaining 20% is earning in the market. In my opinion, when i lose money, there are some other people is winning from me; when i m winning, some people out there is giving me the chance to win. So, it is a cycle. As long as we can manage the risk, maximizing the 20% and lowering the probability of the 80%, we should be doing fine in the market.

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TOMYPAK-WA unveiled

TOMYPAK-WA's first listing date on 5 July 2016. Its price went limit up because of its reference price is 0.005. Even before Bursa's 9am clock tick off, we saw an whooping volume queuing to buy at 0.305. When it is 9am, the TOMYPAK-WA gapped up and limit up at 0.305. (Refer to the snapshot from my RHB TradeSmart App on the right). Congratulations to those who subscribed the rights issue and in return, you had been awarded with the warrants.

But the main thing is not about the stock price. The main thing is the calculation of the TOMYPAK mother share price after the EX date, TOMYPAK-OR price and also TOMYPAK-WA. I had been figuring it out for a long time and luckily i met a friend who helped me a lot. Special credit to my friend, Mr小李飞刀 for his guidance and teaching.

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泊车与投资理念

这几天有放长假，所以就去超级市场补货一下，去买一些粮食和必需品。因为现在也是学校假期，再加上天气热的关系，大街小巷都去超级市场吹冷气逛街，导致泊车场的位置寥寥无几。

某处超市停车场-取之于google

我和我的朋友就在泊车处绕着绕着，全部的人眼睛都东张西望，眼睛看着四周围的车，有些也注意着人，看看他们去哪里。什么绝招都来了，听说手在舵驶盘转三圈，很快就会有位置了。哈哈。还好运气好，很快就找到位置了，不然还要在那里转圈圈了。

想着想着，其实我们的投资方法也很像在超市场找泊车处。

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LIIHEN - Time to Shine II

FB Post on 23 May 2016 in Gainvestor Page

This is an update on LIIHEN after it released its Annual Report 2015 and also Q1 Report. On 23 May 2016, i had posted a facebook comment on LIIHEN after it announced its Q1 result. In the next week, the price gapped up and the gap became a very important support. LIIHEN formed an inverted head and shoulder which was a bullish reversal pattern. 2.5 is a breakout point for the inverted head and shoulder and furthermore 2.6 provided a very comfortable support. By looking at the closing price today (30 May 2016), it is 2.77. Based on technical chart, there are still rooms for the upside. From time to time, i will post my market ideas in my FB. Everyone is welcomed to join and share your ideas and opinions.

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AWC vs EMETALL: Analysis on Why AWC Down but EMETAL Up after QR Announcement?

I had been wondering this question, "Why after the company announced a handsome good results, the share price dropped? Doesnt it supposed to go up? And why some ballooned up like no tomorrow?" I guess some of you might be asking the same questions also. After a case study conducted on AWC (7579) and EMETALL (7217), i guess i might have an answer for the question. Most importantly i know how to ride the wind and trade next time.

1. Fundamental Analysis:

Some background on the business model of the company. AWC is a company specialising in quality engineering services. AWC provides total asset management services such as integrated facilities management and engineering services to building owners. AWC is involved in 4 major industries, namely facilities, engineering, environment and investment holding. You can click here to refer to my post on AWC[1]. EMETALL is engaged in manufacture of metalwork and industrial process machinery and equipment. EMETALL had a few subsidiaries; manufacture and distribution of steel products, IT solutions, property sector[2]. I did not go into detail for EMETALL, sorry.

But first, lets go through AWC and EMETALL Quarter Result[3][4]. 

AWC Q3 Result[3]

AWC announced a very good result. If we compare Q3 2016 with Q3 2015, the net profit improved by 901% (RM5,757k vs RM575k). If we compare with Q2 2015, the net profit improved by 54% (RM5,757k vs RM3,747k). This is definitely the result that we want. Double digit growth. Even with 3 quarters in 2016, the net profit had already exceeded the net profit for the whole 2015. With such momentum, the Q4 will continue to blossom with satisfactory results. Not to forget AWC announced a 1.5 cents of special dividend EX on 16 June 2016.

AWC had been steadily growing with an average net profit margin of 4.71% from 2011 to 2015. it is also a net cash company.

AWC: Revenue & Net Profit from 2011 to 2016. 2016 only announced 3 QR[3]

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TOMYPAK - Rights Issue Underway

TOMYPAK recently released their Annual Report 2015 and their 2016 Q1 results. Some studies had been done on the recent Annual Report and also the Q1 report. Previously, i had posted on TOMYPAK[1]. This will be the updated information on TOMYPAK. Let's go:

1) Fundamental Analysis:

TOMYPAK Q1 2016 Result

Both revenue and net profit of q-o-q had decreased 1.43% and 34.07% respectively[2]. For me, the results are within expectaion, but the share price on 19 May 2016 shows another story. From the volume, a lot of shareholders are quite disappointed with the result. Main reasons of the net profit drop were due to:

i) Slight reduction in demand from overseas customers

ii) Increased cost of production arising from increased cost of imported raw material

iii) Higher energy and labour cost

iv) Foreign exchange volatility

Impact of Foreign Exchange Volatility 

I will further elaborate on the reasons. Demand from overseas reduced 6% and 13% respectively for q-o-q and Q4 Result. Demand from locals increased 4% and reduced 4% respectively for q-o-q and Q4 Result. The cost of imported raw material increased due to the oil price had rebounded. Remember that the raw material of plastic is crude oil. When the price of crude oil increased, thus the cost production also increased. Higher energy and labour cost is because of the new foreign worker levies charges implemented by the government[3]. As for the foreign exchange volatility, this is something that we need to take note for the export-oriented companies earning USD. In Q1 2015, TOMYPAK had realized gain for the foreign exchange but for this Q1, it had a realized loss of RM454k. Although the amount is just minor, however, we need to take note of this line item. Despite with the setbacks, TOMYPAK management is still optimistic as the food and beverage sector remains resilient. Like my friend say, no matter how bad the economy was, people will still eat Maggi. In fact, more people will eat Maggi at that time, and TOMYPAK provides plastic packaging for Maggi~ haha.

Sell in May and Go Away?

Sell in May and go away... Seems like it is a mixed myth and fact throughout all these years. Will this myth continue to happen in this year? First, let's look at the FBMKLCI monthly chart and try to correlate...

FBMKLCI Monthly Chart

From the past year statistics, 2013's May shows a bullish month. 2014's May show a doji with thin body and long tails. For 2015's May, it is a big bearish engulfing which in the following months drag down the FBMKLCI to the lowest of 1503.68 in August 2015. In my previous post[3], i still remember for the month of March, there is a bullish engulfing, and this month April it forms a bearish engulfing. The market is totally unpredictable. 

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UCHITEC - U SEE THAT II *VALUECAP*

UCHITEC had released their Annual Report on 19 April 2016. Indeed there are surprises in the Top 30 Shareholders. This post will be an additional to the previous UCHITEC post. The theme of the Annual Report 2015 "Flourishing from Strength to Strength" with pictures of ripe and ready to harvest paddy. Maybe the management is hinting the share price is going to turn to goldish yellow~ haha. Let's dig in~

1. Fundamental Analysis:

Revenue and Net Profit for UCHITEC from 2011 to 2015

The best part about UCHITEC is its revenue and net profit is consistently high. The average of net profit margin and EPS of 44.66% and 11.94 cents respectively for 5 years. The dividend yield for UCHITEC is even higher than the FD rate, which is 6.09%, which we can see a lot of local fund houses and foreign fund houses investing in it. In its latest Annual Report 2015, the management maintains the dividend allocation of minimum 70% of the net profit, the highest i encounter so far[1]. 

Net Cash per Share and Earnings Per Share

Another highlight will be its high net cash per share. The net cash per share is 0.4592, almost 30% from the closing price on 25 April of 1.73. 83% of its trade receivables are denominated in USD (RM8,57 mil) vs the 60% of its trade payables denominated in USD (RM13.66 mil). Eventhough the USD trade payables is higher than USD trade receivables, its short term deposits is enough to cover the shortage of RM5.09 mil as their USD short term deposits totals up to RM20.11 mil. Recently our Ringgit is showing some strength, which will ease the burden too. 

By comparing 2014 and 2015, the revenue from Europe and US had increased 19% and 52% respectively. UCHITEC is successful at attracting, retaining and developing their employees. They had been actively offering Employee Share Option Scheme (ESOS) as a token of gratitude to their employees for their tireless efforts for the company. At least they are taking the welfare of their staffs, compared to the market nowadays whereby a lot of people are losing their job.

ValueCap Sdn Bhd actually emerges as their top 30 shareholders, alongside with other local and international fund houses. Look at the list below, you will see more than 20 fund houses, for example, Lembaga Tabung Haji, Public Islamic Opportunities Fund, Amanah Saham Bumiputera, Manulife Investment Fund etc etc.

A Thought from Pasar Malam

Today evening time, i went to Shah Alam Pasar Malam, known to be the longest night market in the whole Malaysia. While i was enjoying the popular Malaysian food there, then something struck my head. Actually stock picking is just like buying food in pasar malam. 

Pasar Malam - Night Market

There are a lot of stalls in the pasar malam. Just like there are a lot of counters in our FBMKLCI. Some of the food are good, really good; some of the food are not good, but still there are a lot of people visiting their food, but just for a short period of time. Some of the counters are fundamentally good while some of the counters are just speculative counters, they are hot in a short period of time but wont last for long.

Buying myself a drink is just like picking a stock. Of course, i aimed those stalls with customers. When we are picking a stock, it is important that we pick some counters with active volume. The counters without volume will be difficult for us to buy or to sell. Since the weather is hot nowadays, everybody is drinking cold drinks. They are the most popular food now. Malaysia market is interesting because any national story or local agenda might boost up the share prices. Previously we had GST theme, lately we have plantation theme and also USD exports theme. As long as we read more global or national local news, we can invest based on the themes.

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Summary of March 2016

This is the first week of April 2016. Our FBMKLCI seems to be ready to welcome the bull market, but we still need for some confirmation. Coming ahead is the OPEC meeting on 17 April 2016 which we might see the fluctuation of the Brent Crude Oil. And also the foreign funds investing in our equity market which will further boost or strengthen our Ringgit. You can refer to my previous post, "FBMKLCI - Malaysia BULLeh" by clicking in this link.

Below table is my Gainvestor Portfolio for March. This statistics does not mean anything, it does not mean any hold/buy/sell decision, it is just to summarize and track the Gainvestor Portfolio.

Summary of Gainvestor Portfolio for March 2016

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A Tale of Selling Umbrella

This is a translated post from my Mandarin post, 卖伞的启发故事 . So, if you had read it in Mandarin, then you can disregard this post. All the contents and pictures are exactly the same as my Mandarin post.

Nowadays, the weather is blazing hot, so let me tell you a story, "A Tale of Selling Umbrella"

There was once a businessman who was selling umbrellas. He bought a lot of umbrella with his money and planned to set up a stall to sell all of the umbrellas. After he bought the umbrellas, of course, he needed to conduct homework, such as conduct market survey and study weather forecast. Although the weather forecast is just reporting the forecasted weather ahead, he also learnt necessary knowledge, the direction of wind, the density of the cloud, the location of the busiest street, etc. He always heard a lot of speculations about the rain would be falling on which day. But normally, he would filter those assumptions by analyzing the possibilities. He was not easily influenced and affected by speculations. He clearly understood that, he is responsible of making his own judgement.

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FBMKLCI - Malaysia BULLeh

Let's kick start the April post with participation statistics for our FBMKLCI. Let's focus at the foreign funds.

Bursa Malaysia Trading Participant Statistic for the Past 8 Weeks [1]

For the month of February and March, foreign funds had been in net buy position, RM433.2 Mil and RM6,081 Mil for respectively. for the past 2 months, the foreign funds had been actively trading in our FBMKLCI. We can also track the daily participation statistics through this link. If the foreign funds are coming in, meaning to say our MYR will be stronger and stronger.

The reason being, if the foreign funds want to invest in Malaysia, first, they will take their currency and exchange it to MYR in order to invest in Malaysia. So when the MYR's demand is getting higher and the supply is still the same, that's when we see the MYR getting stronger. With the weekly chart, there is a huge bearish engulfing. So i expect the MYR to get further stronger and might breach 3.80.

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卖伞的启发故事

这几天天气热，就让我来对大家讲一个故事，叫做“卖伞的故事”。

有一个商人卖雨伞，用了一笔钱买了一大批雨伞，打算就拿去摆档口卖伞了。买了一大批货，当然他也是要做功课研究，阅读天气预测的。虽然只是预测天气，他也有自己的知识学习去看风的反向，云的稠密度，哪里的巷口最多人，最繁忙的，等等。虽然很多时候听到很多人说今天或者明天会下雨，但是他听了，自己再加以研究，有自己的看法。因为他知道自己负责自己的决定，自己的决定自己负责，也不会道听途说。

基本上，他也是一个很有认真耐心的人。虽然他每天重复做着同样的东西，但是他一点也不烦闷，也不马虎。世界是残酷的，很多时候，他也遇到了很多的挫折，也是看得不准，以为会下雨，但是都没有下雨。只好伤心的回家，但是心里还是充满着希望，从来不放弃。他知道，如果天气·继续热，那些路人就更加不会带着雨伞出街，而且，这个也就是他的机会了。

皇天不负苦心人，有一天，终于被他等到了！这也应念了他的预测蛮准确的。他算好了，很多沉重的云会被风吹到那个地方。所以，他就在那里摆好档口等着雨。正当他摆好了档口，看看四周围，竟然也出现了几个竞争对手。没有办法，大家都想找吃而已。忽然就下了一场大雨，他就在那里卖雨伞。但是，当他喊价时，隔壁的那个商人终是比他的低，结果弄到他不能顺利的卖雨伞。

当他们在斗价钱的同时，雨也开始小了。从哗啦啦变成滴答滴答的雨滴了。结果，他就向他的对手开价一次过把所有的雨伞都买了过来。他的对手当然开心的把雨伞卖了。对手的心里想，“为什么有这么一个傻人，等雨停了之后，还把我的货统统扫完呢？虽然我亏着一点钱把我的雨伞卖了，但是我现在可以回家休息了。”过后，那个对手就开开心心回家了。

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FBMKLCI - Bull In Charge Now and Plantation to Flourish?

FBMKLCI had been performing quite well for the past few weeks. Lets take a look at the monthly chart.

FBMKLCI Monthly Chart

When we look at the monthly chart, actually we can see a head and shoulder pattern. This head and shoulder pattern is a bearish pattern. The neckline is also the support, stands at 1670. The difference between the neckline (1670) and the highest point (1896) is 226. So from the neckline, the index is expected to break to 1444. (Luckily it did not go down to 你死死死 number； if so, we can collect a lot of fundamentally stock~ haha) I look at the support of 1670 as very important, after few months of hovering around there, finally in March 2016, we are breaking through, hopefully in April, we can firmly stand above the support line.

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行行出状元

小时候，我们总是听到长辈们说，努力读书，读好大学，考到好成绩，才有好的工作，以后赚大钱，有一个好前途。可是，不是每个过程都是顺顺利利的从A到Z，中间一定有很多的挫折，会有很多分叉路。如果没有按照以上的秩序，那么我们会怎么办呢？

如果没有努力读书，我们是不是不能赚大钱，没有好的前途呢？如果我们没有读大学，没有考到好成绩，是不是会变成一粒腐坏的苹果呢？是不是真的如果没有大学文凭，我们就不能有一份好的工作，赚大钱呢？

其实往往事实都是残酷的。确实，如果现今，我们没有大学文凭，我们就比较困难找到一份好的工作。因为大家的头脑已经被洗脑了。大家都认为

读书 + 成绩 + 大学 + 文凭 + 工作 + 赚钱 = 好前途

但是我们也看到很多的例子，他们都没有根据以上的步骤，也会有好前途。就拿几个比喻，Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, Albert Einstein, Mark Zuckerberg等等。他们曾经也是没有好的成绩，他们也不是金英学生，但是他们也可以这么成功，成为了一个改变世界步伐的人物。

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到底为什么他们能出人头地呢？为什么他们可以挑战着自己的路，成为一个“大家都不认为可以成功”的人呢？我个人觉得，理由很简单，因为他们相信*自己的路，我自己走*，*遇到挫折不放弃*，一定会有属于自己的一片蓝天。当然，我们看到的都是成功的例子，我相信，外边还有很多还在努力为自己的未来奋斗的人，也有很多已经放弃奋斗的认了。

TOMYPAK - TOMY Packs His Right Path

TOMYPAK company in Johor. Credit to my friend CKH for taking the photo. 

TOMYPAK continues to focus on its core resilient business. Around 90% of the Group's revenue is derived from the recession-resilient food and beverage sector. Being a necessity item especially in food and beverage industry, TOMYPAK management believe that the demand for flexible packaging will remain strong and growing[4]. Actually what is flexible packaging? By clicking on these video (Video 1 & Video 2), i think you will be able to understand how flexible packaging works[2][3]. In short, flexible packaging is actually a package or. container made of flexible or easily yielding materials that, when filled or closed, can be readily changed in shape. The construction may be of paper, plastic film, foil or any combination of these. 

Some samples of plastic packaging

Flexible packaging is no longer perceived as a simple wrapping material, but also as a decorative, protective and presentable tool to consumers while on display in the market[1]. TOMYPAK was established in 1979, public listed in 1996 in BURSA. TOMYPAK's packaging product classifications include: premium packaging (powdered beverage), high barrier metalized packaging (seasoning, powdered beverage), hot fill packaging (mayonnaise, sauces), general packaging (confectionery, instant noodles, snacks) and specialty (pet food, detergent). There are a lot of big clients, such as, Maggi, Nestle, Mamee, Yeo's, Oriental Food Industries, Apollo, Milo, Vico, Horlicks, Ajinomoto, Babas, Lady's Choice, etc. Now, looking back at the big clients profile. Milo and Maggi, the demand is still there. That's why Mr Chairman mentioned that the demand is still there as these food are recession-resilient food and beverage.

TOMYPAK main clients

LIIHEN - Post Q4 2015

It had been a month since i land my fingers on the keyboard to write a post. Lately had been busy. The market going sideway, absolutely directionless... This is the month of February whereby a lot of companies are announcing their Q4 results. And we will be expecting a lot of annual reports in the month of April. I actually had been waiting for a few companies to release the Q result. One of it is LIIHEN[1]. But before i further into LIIHEN, let me just talk on a few things.

USD/MYR monthly chart

First is the USD/MYR. Our Ringgit is getting stronger alongside with the recovering Brent Crude Oil. Above is the monthly chart of the USD/MYR. Monthly chart usually precedes the weekly chart and also daily chart, providing a better forecast. From the chart, we can saw a descending triangle, which signifies that it is actually a downtrend. Next is the Brent Crude Oil monthly chart. Two hammers seen, signifying that the oil might be rebounding. Well, these are my observations. It needed to be equipped with the fundamental news. With the Saudi and Russia to freeze the oil production, which might bring some impact to the oil price. We will need to be keen of the global news. For me, oil price might rebound with the potential strengthening Ringgit.

Brent Crude Oil Monthly Chart

Now, lets come back to our highlight of the post, LIIHEN.

1. Fundamental Analysis:

LIIHEN Q4 2015 Result [2]

LIIHEN announces their Last Quarter Result on 24 February 2016. By comparing the same quarters, LIIHEN registered a triple digit growth in net profit, 143.17% while the revenue increased 47.81% due to the increase in sales. The breakdown of the 47% is 30% of forex exchange (3.29 vs 4.27) while another 15% is contributed by the sales[2]. When we are comparing the Q3 and Q4, the revenue and net profit increased 6% and 18% respectively, mainly because of the MYR strengthening (4.02 vs 4.27). One point when i am analyzing its balance sheet, its intangible assets had decreased from RM4,813k to RM541k due to the use of 3,473 hectares of permanent reserve forest land for planting and cultivation of rubber wood trees. 

Revenue and Net Profit from 2011 to 2015

By observing from 2011 to 2015, the revenue and net profit had been increasing consistently. The net profit margin for 2015 is 10.46%, averaging around 6.65% from 2011 to 2015. LIIHEN is still a net cash company with RM89,715k, with RM0.4984 net cash per share. In the current year prospect, the management mentioned that the main challenges for 2016 are local issues, such as acceleration of production costs and shortages of workforce. In view of that, the management will focus on three solutions, first, continue to diversify product range to strengthen the market position, second to expand the customer base and third to continue to adopt effective cost management. With better controllable cost structure and wider sales market base, the management is committed to deliver a favourable result for year 2016.