Monday, February 29, 2016

LIIHEN - Post Q4 2015

It had been a month since i land my fingers on the keyboard to write a post. Lately had been busy. The market going sideway, absolutely directionless... This is the month of February whereby a lot of companies are announcing their Q4 results. And we will be expecting a lot of annual reports in the month of April. I actually had been waiting for a few companies to release the Q result. One of it is LIIHEN[1]. But before i further into LIIHEN, let me just talk on a few things.
USD/MYR monthly chart
First is the USD/MYR. Our Ringgit is getting stronger alongside with the recovering Brent Crude Oil. Above is the monthly chart of the USD/MYR. Monthly chart usually precedes the weekly chart and also daily chart, providing a better forecast. From the chart, we can saw a descending triangle, which signifies that it is actually a downtrend. Next is the Brent Crude Oil monthly chart. Two hammers seen, signifying that the oil might be rebounding. Well, these are my observations. It needed to be equipped with the fundamental news. With the Saudi and Russia to freeze the oil production, which might bring some impact to the oil price. We will need to be keen of the global news. For me, oil price might rebound with the potential strengthening Ringgit.
Brent Crude Oil Monthly Chart
Now, lets come back to our highlight of the post, LIIHEN.

1. Fundamental Analysis:

LIIHEN Q4 2015 Result [2]
LIIHEN announces their Last Quarter Result on 24 February 2016. By comparing the same quarters, LIIHEN registered a triple digit growth in net profit, 143.17% while the revenue increased 47.81% due to the increase in sales. The breakdown of the 47% is 30% of forex exchange (3.29 vs 4.27) while another 15% is contributed by the sales[2]. When we are comparing the Q3 and Q4, the revenue and net profit increased 6% and 18% respectively, mainly because of the MYR strengthening (4.02 vs 4.27). One point when i am analyzing its balance sheet, its intangible assets had decreased from RM4,813k to RM541k due to the use of 3,473 hectares of permanent reserve forest land for planting and cultivation of rubber wood trees. 

Revenue and Net Profit from 2011 to 2015
By observing from 2011 to 2015, the revenue and net profit had been increasing consistently. The net profit margin for 2015 is 10.46%, averaging around 6.65% from 2011 to 2015. LIIHEN is still a net cash company with RM89,715k, with RM0.4984 net cash per share. In the current year prospect, the management mentioned that the main challenges for 2016 are local issues, such as acceleration of production costs and shortages of workforce. In view of that, the management will focus on three solutions, first, continue to diversify product range to strengthen the market position, second to expand the customer base and third to continue to adopt effective cost management. With better controllable cost structure and wider sales market base, the management is committed to deliver a favourable result for year 2016.

Thursday, February 11, 2016

猴年股 - 二月业绩股

今天是猴年的第一天。首先就祝贺大家身体健康,心想事成,除旧革新,在股市散发出魅力的成绩!这个也是我今年的第一个华语的post。小弟华语欠佳,请不要笑我。哈哈。来,入正题。

在这个短短的假期里,我做了一个小小的功课,和大家分享。众所周知,二月份会有很多公司公布第四季度的业绩。我把所有即将公布Q4 result的公司都列出来,然后如果他们今年的三个季度的净利润已超越去年整年的净利润,我就把他们归类在一起。接着我就看看他们的PE每股净现金(net cash per share)。至于他的基本面,可能大家必须做深入的功课。可能这些是在二月会有表现的股。再次强调,这个只拿来当作参考,不是买卖意见。

猴年二月业绩的三十股
让我从左边解释到右边。
Counter: 股
PE: 本益比(我选择少过三十的本益比)
Net Cash per Share:净现金除于票数(我们应该把正数的净现金放在第一,接下来就选择差别不要太负的净现金)
Net Profit for Last Financial Year:去年四个季度的净利润
Net Profit for Current Financial Year:今年四个季度的净利润(这些股还缺第四季度的业绩,但是大部分的三个业绩已经超越去年的整年业绩了。)
% Difference of Current - Last:巴仙率(今年的三个季度和去年的整年季度的比较)

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我本身就大约看过以上三十的股的技术分析,大致上都大同小异,但本人也选择了二月份的十股。选择的次序是看着巴仙率来做决定。这些都是属于个人意见,希望大家可以一起分享意见和看法,以便可以达到互相学习的目标。

Monday, February 1, 2016

Summary of January 2016

Today is the first day of February 2016. January 2016 had been a monkey month, very volatile. Let's look at the weekly chart. After two months of bearish engulfing, followed by a hammer and last week it rebounded. On last Friday, it rockets 33.27 points and closes at 1,667.80.

Because of our volatile market, not much stock picks are shared. Below table is my Gainvestor Portfolio for January. Again, this statistics does not mean anything, it does not mean any hold/buy/sell decision, it is just to summarize and track the Gainvestor Portfolio.

Summary of Gainvestor Portfolio for January 2016
In the last week of January, notice all the export stocks are having a heavy selling pressure. Is it because of our MYR is getting stronger? In the weekly chart below, there is a bearish engulfing and seems like it is going to break the support of 4.15, reason being the chart is now forming a double top. Good news for the nation!! But do notice that for a few counters which will be announcing their Q Result in February, they are going to report their profit from October till December 2015, which at that time, the average for 3 months of USD/MYR is 4.2845[1].
Weekly Chart of USD/MYR
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