Price Volume Analysis - MMSV, JFTECH, FPGROUP, OKA, OCK, OCNCASH

The most important Technical Analysis for me is the Price Volume Analysis. The Price Action needs to be supported or validated by Volume. 

Volume reveals activity. Volume reveals the truth behind the Price Action. Volume validates Price. If the price went up without Volume, hence, we need to be careful as the Price might not sustain. 

We try to identify the pattern of a few successful breakout examples. The similar patterns that i had identified as below: 

1. Notice the days with high volume.

2. Identify the closing zones of candles (Zone 1).

3. If the chart had been sideways, there might be chance.

4. Prefer to breakout the resistances with volume.

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Spike, Sleep, Spike Up Again with Volume - BIOHLDG, IWCITY, MMSV, SYSTECH, OCNCASH

Today, i would like to share some Technical Analysis logics. This post will be similar to the previous posts, I Came, I Test, I Conquer with VOLUME!!!

Lets look at the charts. Let's identify some similar patterns and hope we can apply what we discuss today in the similar charts. Do remember that, Technical Analysis is not 100%. The most important elements for Technical Analysis for me is the Price Action and the Volume. 

To recap the important points, Price Action is the most important because the delta/difference is the one determines whether we are earning or losing. The Price Action needs to be supported or validated by the Volume. Volume reveals activity. Volume reveals the truth behind the Price Action. Volume validates Price. 

1. BIOHLDG

BIOHLDG Daily Chart

Notice the spikes which i draw with a blue spheres. The spikes in the price are validated by the spikes in the volume. The price action is aligned with the volume. And notice after that, the volumes are low and the price is hovering around that area. Those who created the spikes are normally not retailers, they can be market makers, fund houses or institutional investors. In short, i will call them "they". Once they spiked up the price and volume, they will wait. Wait for a few days or weeks to wash the impatient retailers away before creating another spike.

Then, those retailers who sold the stocks will regret because they sold it too early. This phenomena is very normal for them to wash away the retailers. Question, how do we know that they are still in these counters? Well, if they had sold all their shares, we will see a similar spike of volume but the price will be falling down, creating a bearish engulfing. But what i discuss here might not be true, maybe some of them will sell partially day by day. We can never know what they are thinking, because we are not them. 

Understand the example given? It's okay. Now, lets look at other examples.

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阅读上市公司在大马交易网址发布的通告

上次每次搭LRT回家时，一边手握着扶手，一边手滑着手机。我手滑的并不是面子书，而是大马交易所网址，阅读公司通告。这个已经是我的一个习惯了。闭市后，从五点到七点，就是各公司公布通告的时间。有人就有问我，你已经工作忙碌了一整天，难道还要负担你的头脑，阅读棘手英文字语吗？哈哈，有时候我认同，我查字典的时间多过看通告，也的确没错，头脑已经忙碌了一整天，同样的也麻木了，所以也要一些新闻来刺激头脑一下。哈哈。

大马交易所通告网址

阅读上市公司的通告，最重要的就是得到最真实最快的公司进展。最真实的通告新闻就是从大马交易所网址得到的新闻，肯定是百分之一百确实准确的。大部分公司都会一五一十的事情来龙去脉报告给大马交易所。当我们阅读报纸或者一些部落格时，往往一些报道都会把自己的推测写出来。

当我们阅读通告时，是有一些细节我们需要注意的。今天我就在这里和大家分享一些例子。倘若我们明白了此通告的重要性，我们就可以乘风投资，靠着主题把股价推上而赚钱套利离场。

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Learn, Invest, GAIN - Gainvestor

We invest with a dream...

Either to be financially free, to race against the rising inflation and cost of living, to increase our cash reserves for future, for our family or loved ones, for own satisfaction... No matter what are our reasons, i believe we must have be cautious and conscious of our decisions and what impacts will our actions be. Always anticipate the worst and have a plan B for every strategy. Invest with a purpose or reason, carry out the reason with a proper strategy, be resilient in finding the best-fit-strategy that can maximise the profit, repeat the strategy over and over again and constantly be reminded of the reason we invest.

I invest based on the popular-known techniques Fundamental Analysis (FA) and Technical Analysis (TA) and with my own Projection Analysis (PA). The company must be making steady profits or steady growth. We invest on the company's future, alongside with its theme. It is normal for us to invest in a good FA company because of its steady financial performance. But, to reach out our knowledge, we should put our eyesight in investing in a company because of its future and potential business prospect. The fundamentals provide us a cushion that the company had done good job in the past, but does not necessarily meant that they will uphold their good business.

I always mentioned in my blog about research (审查), foresight (眼光) and faith (信念). Thats what i have practiced before i bought in a stock. Of course, sometimes i let my greed and fear take over. Well, i am also a human. Human make mistakes, but most importantly is we learnt from mistake and do not repeat it again in our next strategy. Well, its easier said than done. Haha, i know. I allow myself for some room of errors so that there is room for improvements =P

Today, i am going share about the story of a puppy named OCNCASH. OCNCASH is one of my (30 cents penny stock) 三仙股 in 2015. After 2 years, OCNCASH finally break a new high and now maybe in the edge of breaking new high. And how actually the FA, TA and PA can come into our investment strategy.

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OCNCASH - Post Q4 2016 Main Board Transfer?

OCNCASH - OCEAN full of CASH~ such an elegant name... I still remember i first written about OCNCASH in 24 September 2015. OCNCASH is my first stock-pick for my blog. At that time, the price is around 0.345, after 1.5 years, the price is now 0.435, a 26% in 1.5 years, which is seemed a quite fair result. Along the way, i kept track of its result. You can take a look at my previous post below:

1. OCNCASH - OCEAN full of CASH

2. OCNCASH - Post Q3 2015

3. OCNCASH - Post Q2 2016 Result

Now let's dig in straight at the Q4 2016.

1. Fundamental Analysis

Revenue and Net Profit in Malaysia Stockbiz[1]

OCNCASH announced their Q4 2016 result. Both revenue and net profit shown positive improvement in qoq and yoy. Revenue increased +13% qoq and +32% yoy respectively while net profit increased +4% qoq and +75% yoy respectively. If you notice from the snapshot above, this Q4 2016 shown the highest revenue and net profit during the displayed 3 years[1]. For me, this is definitely a growth stock. For the whole year, FY2016's revenue improved +5%, while net profit increased +14% when compared with FY2015. All in all, FY 2016 is a good year for OCNCASH.

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OCNCASH - Post Q2 2016 Result

This post is going be a short update on OCNCASH after it released its Q2 2016 result on 26 August 2016[1].

1. Fundamental Analysis:

OCNCASH Net Profit and Revenue by Quarter

As we can see, this Q2's net profit is the highest since it's listed[2]. The net profit is RM2,659k. The net profit recorded yoy of +9% and qoq of 127%, while for revenue, OCNCASH posted yoy of -4% and qoq of 13%. 

2016 Q2 posted the highest net profit since it was listed in 2004[2]

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Perodua BEZZA vs Proton PERSONA

Posted in my FB page on 18 July. Sorry for the blur

If you did notice my facebook page, i had been stressing out on the emergence of Perodua Bezza in the Automobile Industry. For me Perodua Bezza comes out in the right time, right price, with the right specification. Right time, is because Bezza emerges when the consumer power is recovering. And now is the exact time to boost up the automobile industry. Right price, is because Bezza is priced from RM37k to RM51k, depending on the specifications selected. Right specification, means this first ever Perodua sedan car obtained a 5 stars ASEAN NCAP (New Car Assessment Programme) for safety. With its fuel efficiency of 22.8 km/l, it can be compared to foreign competitor, Mitsubishi Attrage/Mirage[2][3].

Why i am so fond about this car? First is because it is our Malaysia Perodua's first ever EEV (Energy Efficient Vehicles) sedan car. Imagine it is local made and assembled car. Bezza is made with quality, comfort, spaciousness, reliability, affordability and looks in mind as it has one of the biggest boot spaces in the market with 508 litres available in its class. We, as Malaysians should be proud of Perodua's technology.

Posted in my FB page on 28 July.

Perodua targeted to sell 7,600 units of Bezza per month in 2016[4]. In terms of Mathematic, from August to December 2016, they targeted 38,000 units of Bezza to be sold. Even Mr President and CEO, Datuk Dr Aminar Rashid Salleh was expecting Perodua Bezza to be one of the best volume sellers, targeted for replacement car buyers, specifically newly-weds and young families, who need a larger boot space in line with the new stage in their lives. We imagine, Malaysia had a lot of fresh graduates every year. In the first year of working, most of them will require a car. It used to be Myvi which was their favourite cars. But Myvi is a hatchback car. If we can get a sedan car with almost the same price with Myvi, i believe mostly fresh graduates will also opt for a sedan car as it is more spacious.

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OCNCASH - Post Q3 2015

OCNCASH posted a WOW-ing result today (25 November 2015), well at least for me, it is a WOW. Let's go through the Quarterly Result.

1) Fundamental Analysis:

OCNCASH Q3 2015 Result

Comparing Q3 2015 with Q3 2014, the revenue increased 9.76% while net profit had a whooping triple digit growth, 599.79%. Cumulatively, revenue improved 12.24% while net profit improved 127.55% [2].

A point to note here, if we compare the cumulative Q3 2015 against 2014 annual result, the net profit had already exceeded 2014 annual result by 44%. This is just the Q3. I think roughly we will know what will be happening in Q4. And how the result will impact the price, especially when the chart had broken a historical new high. This is what we call a growing company. Just to recap, OCNCASH is specialized in felts division and nonwoven division[1].

Cumulative Revenue by Geographical Segment

Next, let's look at the revenue by countries. The ranking will be Malaysia (31%), Japan (29%), Indonesia (19%) Thailand (17%) and others (5%). Around 69% of the net profit is generated from overseas, which is using USD. So, OCNCASH is a USD benefit country.

Remember in my previous post, in the annual report, Mr Chairman assured the nonwoven division will have a double digit growth this year. The increment of 9.76% in revenue for nonwoven industries on quarter on quarter basis is mainly due to increase in sales to Thailand and Japan. Revenue from air condition market also recorded an increase. The air condition is the mask industry, remember the haze that happened in Malaysia and Indonesia during September and October. However for the felts division, Indonesia showed a decrease in revenue due to the slowdown in new automotive sales. New factory will be completed in June 15 in Indonesia. That's why we see the liabilities increased for the felts division, it is all for the expansion of the business in Indonesia.

OCNCASH - OCEAN full of CASH

OCEANCASH... OCEAN full of CASH... such hidden potential.

OCEANCASH is specialized in three segments:
a) Insulation, which is engaged in the manufacturing and distribution of resinated felts,

b) Hygiene, which is engaged in the manufacturing and trading of non-woven products,

c) Investment holding and provision of management services.[4]

The company first started off with felts industry in 1997 and next with the nonwoven industry in 2000.

Nonwoven samples

The felts are installed in the interior and exterior of cars (eg. car doors, bonnet) and act as heat and sound insulator. They are also installed in roofs, walls, partitions and carpet underlay.[2] For the nonwoven, they are widely used in the disposable hygienic products industry. Its application include another layer for diapers, sanitary napkins, wet wipes, and surgical apparels including caps, masks, and gowns.[2]